TESLA Stock - Can TSLA Top Out Here?

TheTeslaGuy
24 Sept 202414:44

TLDRIn this Tesla stock update video, the host discusses Tesla's market performance, noting a 1.72% rise despite closing near the open, suggesting a potential inflection point. The video highlights the 'doji' candlestick pattern indicating indecision. It also explores the possibility of Tesla's stock price topping out, referencing a rising channel and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The host speculates on two scenarios: a bearish move below $180 or a bullish breakout above $265, affecting Tesla's trajectory in the coming months. Indicators like RSI and stochastics remain bullish, but the host advises caution, watching for a confirmed weekly close above a significant trend line.

Takeaways

  • 🚀 Tesla's stock closed up 1.72%, outperforming the market which was up about half a percent.
  • 📈 There was a gap up in Tesla's stock due to positive news from China where the government is stimulating the economy.
  • 🧭 Tesla's stock performance is tied to China as a significant portion of its revenue and profits come from there.
  • 🕊️ The 'doji' candlestick pattern on the stock chart indicates indecision in the market about Tesla's direction.
  • 📊 The stock is at a critical inflection point that could determine its trajectory for the coming weeks or months.
  • 📉 There is a possibility of Tesla's stock retracing to levels below the recent low of $182 if it doesn't break above certain resistance levels.
  • 🔼 A break above $265 to $270 could signal a bullish trend and reduce the chances of a significant drop.
  • 📌 The Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6% is a key area to watch, as the stock has historically reacted around this level.
  • 📅 Upcoming events like earnings reports and the robo-taxi event could act as catalysts for Tesla's stock.
  • ⏳ The video creator advises patience and careful observation of the stock's behavior before making trading decisions.

Q & A

  • What is the main topic of the video transcript?

    -The main topic of the video transcript is an analysis and update on Tesla's stock performance, discussing market movements, potential future trends, and technical indicators.

  • What is the significance of the 'doge candle' mentioned in the transcript?

    -The 'doge candle' signifies indecision in the market. It is characterized by a long wick above and below the body of the candlestick, indicating that the stock's direction is uncertain.

  • What does the speaker believe is a crucial level for Tesla's stock price?

    -The speaker believes that the level around $265 to $270 is crucial for Tesla's stock price as it could determine whether the stock will continue to rise or potentially fall to lower levels.

  • What is the importance of the rising channel discussed in the transcript?

    -The rising channel is important as it indicates the stock's bullish trend. However, the speaker suggests that if Tesla reaches the top of this channel and shows signs of rejection, it could signal a potential top out.

  • What role does the Chinese market play in Tesla's stock performance according to the transcript?

    -The Chinese market plays a significant role in Tesla's stock performance due to the company's substantial revenue, profits, and business operations in China. Positive news from China can positively impact Tesla's stock.

  • What does the speaker suggest about Tesla's stock behavior in the short term?

    -The speaker suggests that Tesla's stock is still bullish in the short term, even if it experiences a pullback, as long as it remains within the identified channel and technical indicators remain positive.

  • What upcoming events might influence Tesla's stock according to the transcript?

    -Upcoming events that might influence Tesla's stock include earnings reports, the robo-taxi event, and delivery numbers, all of which are anticipated to occur in the near future.

  • What is the potential bearish scenario outlined in the transcript?

    -The potential bearish scenario is if Tesla's stock does not break above $265 to $270 and instead consolidates around the current levels before falling, potentially reaching levels below $180.

  • What is the potential bullish scenario for Tesla's stock as discussed in the transcript?

    -The potential bullish scenario is if Tesla's stock breaks above $265 to $270, goes higher, and then falls out of the channel. This would indicate a break from the previous trend and a reduced likelihood of a significant drop below $180.

  • How does the speaker view the importance of the weekly trend line on the Tesla stock chart?

    -The speaker views the weekly trend line as significant because a break and close above this line on a logarithmic scale could be a powerful sign of the stock's strength and potential future performance.

  • What advice does the speaker give regarding trading Tesla's stock based on the current analysis?

    -The speaker advises caution and patience, suggesting that it's not a good time to short the stock and that one should wait for a more obvious top signal before making significant trades.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla Market Update and Analysis

The speaker welcomes viewers to a Tesla update video, discussing Tesla's performance in the market and what to expect for the rest of the week. They mention that Tesla closed the day up by 1.72%, outperforming the market, and highlight the impact of China's economic stimulus on Tesla's stock. The speaker also discusses the 'dogee candle' price pattern, indicating indecision in the market, and the potential for Tesla's stock to reach an inflection point. They speculate on whether Tesla's stock will continue to rise, stabilize, or fall, and emphasize the importance of the current price action for future trends.

05:00

📈 Analyzing Tesla's Price Trends and Predictions

The speaker delves into Tesla's price trends, mentioning the importance of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and historical price behavior. They discuss the possibility of Tesla's stock price retracing to previous lows if it doesn't break above certain resistance levels. The speaker also talks about upcoming catalysts like earnings reports and delivery numbers that could influence Tesla's stock price. They outline two potential scenarios for Tesla's stock: a bearish scenario where the stock falls below $180, and a bullish scenario where it breaks above resistance levels and continues to rise.

10:02

📊 Tesla's Technical Indicators and Weekly Outlook

The speaker reviews Tesla's technical indicators, noting that they are still bullish in the short term, with overbought conditions in some indicators. They discuss the importance of a potential breakout above a certain trend line on a logarithmic scale and the implications for Tesla's future price action. The speaker also cautions about the risk of Tesla's stock falling out of its current bullish channel and the potential for a significant price correction. They conclude by emphasizing the importance of watching the stock's behavior closely in the coming days and weeks to determine the next move.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that specializes in electric cars, solar energy generation, and energy storage products. In the video, Tesla is the central topic, with the speaker discussing its stock performance and market trends. Tesla's significance is highlighted by its role as a major player in the electric vehicle industry and its influence on the stock market.

💡Stock

A stock represents a share in the ownership of a company. In the context of the video, the speaker is analyzing Tesla's stock (TSLA), discussing its price movements, and speculating on future trends. Stocks are a common way for investors to participate in the financial success of a company.

💡Market

The market in this context refers to the stock market, where shares of publicly traded companies like Tesla are bought and sold. The speaker mentions the market to discuss broader economic trends and how they might affect Tesla's stock price.

💡Gap up

A gap up in stock trading refers to a situation where the opening price of a stock is higher than the previous day's closing price. In the video, the speaker mentions a gap up in Tesla's stock, suggesting positive sentiment and strong opening trading activity.

💡Doge candle

A doji candle is a type of candlestick pattern that signifies indecision in the market. It occurs when the opening and closing prices of a security are very close. The speaker uses the term 'dogee candle' (likely a mispronunciation of 'doji') to describe a day's trading activity that indicates uncertainty about Tesla's future price movement.

💡Rising Channel

A rising channel is a technical analysis pattern that suggests a security's price is in an uptrend. It is characterized by higher lows and higher highs. The speaker discusses Tesla's stock being in a rising channel, indicating a bullish trend, but also notes the possibility of the channel being a wedge, which could imply a reversal.

💡Fibonacci retracement

Fibonacci retracement levels are used in technical analysis to predict potential support and resistance levels during a trend. The speaker mentions the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that Tesla's stock price might find resistance or a reversal point at this level, based on historical price movements.

💡Inflection point

An inflection point is a term used in mathematics and business to describe a change in the direction of a function or trend. In the video, the speaker refers to an inflection point in Tesla's stock price, indicating a potential shift in the stock's trend, which could be either bullish or bearish.

💡Catalyst

A catalyst in finance is an event or piece of news that causes a change in the price of a security. The speaker mentions upcoming catalysts for Tesla, such as earnings reports and the 'robo taxi' event, which could influence the stock's direction.

💡Overbought

Overbought is a term used in technical analysis to describe a security that has risen in price to a level that may be difficult to sustain based on its current fundamentals. The speaker uses the term to describe Tesla's stock as being overbought according to certain indicators, suggesting that a price correction might be imminent.

Highlights

Tesla stock update video discussing market performance and expectations.

Not financial advice; the presenter is not a financial advisor.

Introduction to the YouTube membership section for detailed Tesla analysis.

Tesla's stock closed up 1.72%, outperforming the market.

Gap up in Tesla's stock due to positive China news and economic stimulus.

Chinese stocks like Le Auto and Xang Neo saw substantial increases.

Discussion on Tesla's potential inflection point in the market.

First appearance of a doji candle, indicating market indecision.

Analysis of Tesla's position within a rising channel.

Potential for Tesla to top out around $253-$254.

Historical patterns suggest a retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Importance of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level for future price action.

Catalysts like earnings and the robo-taxi event that could influence Tesla's stock.

The possibility of Tesla's stock falling to lower levels if it doesn't break above $265-$270.

Contrasting scenarios if Tesla breaks above resistance levels.

Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest continued bullish short-term trend.

Weekly trend line analysis and its significance for Tesla's stock.

The importance of a confirmed close above the trend line on a logarithmic scale.

Potential retrace to major support levels if the weekly candle closes above the trend line.